Coffee consumer or not, it’s safe to say that most Americans are well aware of the Pumpkin Spice Latte. The flavored drink appears on cafe menus for a limited time each autumn, becoming, for many, a sign that the cozy season has officially begun.
In this edition of The Pollack Group’s Sited Visibility Index, we examine how AI responded to unbranded questions about fall coffee using our Sited GEO solution. We ran prompts spanning pumpkin spice and its adjacent seasonal flavors, alongside queries about dairy-free and healthy options.
TL;DR
- Starbucks dominates AI visibility around fall coffee, appearing in 72% of analyzed answers. This is nearly three times the rate of its closest competitor, Dunkin’ (25%).
- Starbucks captured 27% of GEO Share of Voice, compared with 9.5% for Dunkin’ and 7.6% for Dutch Bros.
- Starbucks tends to appear near the top of AI recommendations, with an average Mention Position of 1.5, meaning it generally appears between the first and second brand that’s listed.
- Starbucks earned the highest overall Sentiment score at 7.6, followed by Dutch Bros at 7.3.
- Starbucks’ domain (starbucks.com) was cited in 35% of analyzed answers, more than three times the citation rate of the next-highest competitor domain, which is Dutch Bros’ (11%).
Despite not inventing flavored coffee, Starbucks has an indisputable claim over the spiced drink; the coffee company’s close competitors have launched their own versions, but to less avail. Between conversations with friends and searching online for what and where to order, Starbucks remains the top contender for pumpkin spice. Even as consumers have shifted their search behavior, prompting AI chatbots over traditional Google queries, Starbucks’ hold on the fall coffee conversation remains strong.
*It’s worth noting that because AI is constantly evolving, the following findings reflect performance during a limited window and have the potential to shift as more data is collected over time.
Methodology
The GEO analysis was based on AI-generated responses to 20 unbranded prompts related to fall coffee. We evaluated 269 answers generated over the course of seven days and focused on Starbucks and its top competitors (Dutch Bros, Dunkin’, Tim Hortons, Peet’s Coffee, Blue Bottle, Costa Coffee and La Colombe).
The prompts included general questions about fall coffee, without mentioning any brands. Here’s a snapshot:
- Where can I get a pumpkin spice latte near me?
- What new fall coffee flavors are available this year?
- Which coffee shop has the best seasonal pumpkin drink menu?
- What seasonal coffee drinks are good if I want something not too sweet?
- What are some fall coffee drinks with less sugar and dairy free options
GEO Awareness
GEO Awareness measures how frequently a brand appears in AI answers. Starbucks was mentioned in 72% of all analyzed answers, dominating the conversation by a wide margin. It was followed by Dunkin’ (25%) and Dutch Bros (20%), while Peet’s Coffee (8.3%) and Tim Hortons (3.1%) appeared much less often.
GEO Share of Voice (SOV)
GEO Share of Voice measures mentions of a brand divided by total mentions of all brands. Starbucks dominated again, with 27% of total mentions, more than three times the share of its runners-up, Dunkin’ (9.5%) and Dutch Bros (7.6%). Peet’s Coffee (3.1%) and Tim Hortons (1.2%) had a much smaller presence by comparison.
Mention Position
Like traditional SEO, an important aspect of GEO analysis is where a brand ranks when AI provides a list of recommendations. The earlier a brand appears in AI-generated answers (i.e. the “Mention Position”), the more likely it is to be noticed by users. Starbucks led, with an average Mention Position of 1.5, meaning it typically appeared between the first and second brand mentioned in AI search results. Tim Hortons followed at 2.4, while Dutch Bros (2.7), Dunkin’ (2.8) and Peet’s Coffee (2.8) tended to appear later.
Sentiment
The Sentiment score is measured on a scale of 1-10, with lower scores representing more negative sentiment and higher scores suggesting more positive responses. Starbucks led the competitive set with a score of 7.6, followed closely by Dutch Bros (7.3), Tim Hortons (6.8), Peet’s Coffee (6.7) and Dunkin’ (6.6).
While Starbucks was the only brand in the data set aside from Dunkin’ to register any negative mentions, positive mentions far outweighed them, with no more than one negative tag appearing in each section. Competing brands generated fewer specific sentiment tags overall, reflecting greater depth and specificity of Starbucks’ owned content.
Creativity Shaping Brand Sentiment: Starbucks and Dutch Bros in the Lead
Customer Experience Shaping Brand Sentiment: Dutch Bros and Starbucks in the Lead
Product Quality Shaping Brand Sentiment: Starbucks and Dutch Bros in the Lead
Comparatively, Tim Hortons received fewer mentions than other brands.
Cited Sources
AI search engines pull information from all different kinds of sources, including company domains, traditional media outlets and even social media platforms like Facebook or Reddit. For fall coffee searches, owned content stood out as an important source of information, with Starbucks’ website cited far more often than competitors’ sites, traditional outlets or social media. Starbucks’ domain specifically outpaced competitors as an AI source, with starbucks.com cited in 35% of analyzed answers. Tim Hortons’ domain was cited in 0.4% of answers.
What the Laggards are Missing
Highlighted earlier, Starbucks’ domain was astronomically ahead of competitors when it came to the sources AI used in its answers. Starbucks.com was cited in 35% of analyzed answers, while Blue Bottle, Costa Coffee and La Colombe received no citations to their websites.
Two Starbucks pages stood out as prominent sources for AI answers. The Fall Starts With Starbucks page was the most-cited URL in the analysis, appearing in 14% of answers, followed by the featured menu page (13%). Both pages directly address the fall coffee questions consumers are asking, making them useful sources. Competitors with little to no dedicated content give AI less relevant information to cite, which in turn impacts visibility.
Brand websites can offer direct information on seasonal menus and product availability, while traditional media may cover those details less consistently or only when there’s a broader news hook. Knowing where your product or service stands can help determine where to focus your efforts and what kind of outreach will make the biggest impact.
Seeing It In Action
For a look into the actual conversations that consumers are having with chatbots, see an example below.
Prompt: Which coffee shop has the best seasonal pumpkin drink menu?
Answer (excerpt):
Starbucks is widely considered to have the best overall seasonal pumpkin drink menu for traditional flavor, but other chains excel depending on what you prefer.
Top Coffee Shop Pumpkin Menus
- Starbucks: Wins for a well-rounded classic Pumpkin Spice Latte. Their fall menu also features an iced pumpkin cream chai and an iced pumpkin cream-topped espresso.
- Caribou Coffee: Known as a favorite for richer options. Highlights include the Pumpkin White Mocha (melted white chocolate chips) and the high-flavor Pumpkin Espresso Shaker.
- Peet’s Coffee: Praised for being less sweet than competitors. It features a heavier emphasis on natural spices with a distinct clove bite.
- Dutch Bros: Best for sweet, dessert-style drinks. Their menu includes a Caramel Pumpkin Brûlée Freeze and pumpkin pie lattes with sugar-free syrup options.
What This Means For Your Brand
- Own the Moment: Building a strong association with a recurring consumer occasion bodes well for a brand’s AI visibility. Starbucks captured 27% of the fall coffee conversation, far ahead of its competitors.
- Position Matters as Much as Presence: Starbucks appeared in 72% of analyzed answers, but it also appeared at the top of listed results, with an average Mention Position of 1.5. Being mentioned is valuable, but being one of the first recommendations compounds that value.
- Relevant Citations: Specific and timely owned content can give AI clearer information to reference, and having a variety of owned content gives AI more opportunities to direct users to more accurate responses.
- Know Your Competitors: Starbucks was most frequently mentioned alongside Dunkin’ and Dutch Bros, showing that the brands competing for AI visibility may vary depending on the specific questions consumers ask. GEO analysis can help brands identify which competitors appear alongside their own and inform how they adjust their strategy.
Put Your Brand to the Test
The analysis is powered by Sited, The Pollack Group’s solution for GEO and online visibility improvement. Curious where your brand ranks in these same AI conversations? We’ll run your category through Sited and show you exactly how and why you show up, or don’t. Let’s talk.
